Apparently, my renewed attention has not been sufficient to re-spark progress. Other than core prices remaining under control (a band of about half a percent either side of zero), the most recent reports have been worse than their immediate predecessors or were continued bad news.
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent. Our proprietary labor market index edged down for the first time in 4 months, and is desperately clinging to a place just above its trailing 6-month moving average. Mixed on the surface and neutral after an in-depth look.
Total construction activity for May 2010 was 0.2 percent below April. Bad.
Manufacturer’s shipments decreased 1.3 percent in May. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.4 percent. Bad.
May 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.3 percent from April. Inventories were up 0.5 percent. Bad.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $42.3 billion in May 2010, as imports increased more than exports. Bad, albeit for all the right reasons.
Retail and food service sales for June decreased -0.5 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for May 2010 were down 0.9% from April. Bad.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 0.5 percent in June. prices for finished goods rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended June 2010, their third straight month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good, especially as the monthly decline was strictly a food-and-energy thing.
The CPI declined 0.1 percent in June after falling 0.2 percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. Good.
Real average weekly earnings fell 0.2 percent over the month of June. Bad.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent in May 2010. Bad.
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in June. The capacity utilization rate for total industry was unchanged. Neutral.
Import prices declined for the second consecutive month, dropping 1.3 percent in June. Export prices fell 0.2 percent. Neutral.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
Stumbling through June
What’s up here? I get a good enough month at First XV Communications to put this blog on the back burner in June and things fall apart. The Good news index (GNI) fell by 9.9 index points during the month. Much of the accounting for the fall goes to the housing and related markets, but the rot seemed to be seeping into the durables factories as well. With the first major reports in July looking a bit dodgy as well (details in a later post), I guess I’ll just have to keep my nose to this particular grindstone, for the good of all.
In April 2010, wholesale trade edged up 0.7 percent over March. Good.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased very slightly in April, as exports decreased more than imports. Bad all around.
Retail sales for May decreased -1.2 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for April 2010 were up 0.6% from March. Good.
Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits averaged 7.7 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter of 2010, not statistically different from the fourth quarter of 2009. Neutral.
Housing starts in May 2010 10.0 percent below April. Awful.
After-tax profits for retail corporations averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter 2010, down 0.1 cents from the fourth quarter. Bad.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2010 were 32.7 percent below the revised April rate. Truly awful.
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1 percent in May. Alarmingly awful.
Import prices fell 0.6 percent in May. Fuel prices reversed the recent upward trend, falling 4.9 percent in May. In contrast to fuel prices, nonfuel prices continued to trend up in May, rising 0.5 percent. Everything is right on the knife edge between good and bad; rated as mixed or neutral.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved down 0.3 percent in May. Prices for finished goods rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ended May 2010. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2
percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from April to May. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.8 percent over the month. Good and better.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Still good, but less good than we had thought.
Personal income and disposable personal income both increased 0.4 percent in May. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Good.
Industrial production advanced 1.2 percent in May after having risen 0.7 percent in April. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 1.0 percentage point. Good.
In April 2010, wholesale trade edged up 0.7 percent over March. Good.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased very slightly in April, as exports decreased more than imports. Bad all around.
Retail sales for May decreased -1.2 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for April 2010 were up 0.6% from March. Good.
Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits averaged 7.7 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter of 2010, not statistically different from the fourth quarter of 2009. Neutral.
Housing starts in May 2010 10.0 percent below April. Awful.
After-tax profits for retail corporations averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter 2010, down 0.1 cents from the fourth quarter. Bad.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2010 were 32.7 percent below the revised April rate. Truly awful.
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1 percent in May. Alarmingly awful.
Import prices fell 0.6 percent in May. Fuel prices reversed the recent upward trend, falling 4.9 percent in May. In contrast to fuel prices, nonfuel prices continued to trend up in May, rising 0.5 percent. Everything is right on the knife edge between good and bad; rated as mixed or neutral.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved down 0.3 percent in May. Prices for finished goods rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ended May 2010. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2
percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from April to May. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.8 percent over the month. Good and better.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Still good, but less good than we had thought.
Personal income and disposable personal income both increased 0.4 percent in May. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Good.
Industrial production advanced 1.2 percent in May after having risen 0.7 percent in April. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 1.0 percentage point. Good.
Monday, May 31, 2010
A flowery end to May
The good news index (GNI), a measure of the diffusion of good headline numbers among a subset of the principal Federal economic indicators, rebounded strongly in May to reach 78.9 percent. This was the best month so far in the increasingly evident recovery.
As the evidence for recovery strengthens, I’ve become something of a NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBCD) watcher. (NBCD watchers are something like Fed watchers, except more intellectual and better looking. To be fair, it must be noted that Fedwatchers are far more wealthy.)
Of the four NBCD members who have made easy-to-find statements about the possibility the economy is in a recovery, three made strong statements that it was their personal view that the economy has been in a recovery for some time. The fourth indicated that we should look at a longer sequence of positive reports before deciding.
In any case, we will stick by our December 4, 2009, call that the technical indicators we make or follow point to an April 2009 turning point. We’ll also stick to our call that the NBCD will not confirm the trough until nearly Christmas.
March exports rose to $147.9 billion but imports rose to $188.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $40.4 billion, up from $39.4 billion in February. Two wrongs may not make a right, but two encouraging signs for demand can lead to a negative report; score a zero.
The price index for imports increased 0.9 percent in April. About 55 percent of the April increase was attributable to higher fuel prices. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.5 percent. Export prices increased 1.2 percent in April. The April advance was led by higher nonagricultural prices. Overall, this is just too much price inflation; score a zero.
U.S. retail and food service sales increased 0.4 percent from the previous month. Not a statistically significant change—score 0.5.
U.S. total business sales for March 2010 were up 2.3 percent from February. Good.
Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in April after having risen 0.2 percent in March. Good.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.1 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods moved up 0.8 percent and the crude goods index fell 1.2 percent. Good, on balance.
The CPI declined 0.1 percent in April after rising 0.1 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in both March and April. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1 percent from March to April. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.4 percent over the month. Good.
Sales of new one-family houses in April 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 14.8 percent March. Good.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.9 percent in April. Good.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 3.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010. The good news is muted a bit.
Personal income increased 0.4 percent in April. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $4.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. Mixed, albeit a good mix.
As the evidence for recovery strengthens, I’ve become something of a NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBCD) watcher. (NBCD watchers are something like Fed watchers, except more intellectual and better looking. To be fair, it must be noted that Fedwatchers are far more wealthy.)
Of the four NBCD members who have made easy-to-find statements about the possibility the economy is in a recovery, three made strong statements that it was their personal view that the economy has been in a recovery for some time. The fourth indicated that we should look at a longer sequence of positive reports before deciding.
In any case, we will stick by our December 4, 2009, call that the technical indicators we make or follow point to an April 2009 turning point. We’ll also stick to our call that the NBCD will not confirm the trough until nearly Christmas.
March exports rose to $147.9 billion but imports rose to $188.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $40.4 billion, up from $39.4 billion in February. Two wrongs may not make a right, but two encouraging signs for demand can lead to a negative report; score a zero.
The price index for imports increased 0.9 percent in April. About 55 percent of the April increase was attributable to higher fuel prices. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.5 percent. Export prices increased 1.2 percent in April. The April advance was led by higher nonagricultural prices. Overall, this is just too much price inflation; score a zero.
U.S. retail and food service sales increased 0.4 percent from the previous month. Not a statistically significant change—score 0.5.
U.S. total business sales for March 2010 were up 2.3 percent from February. Good.
Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in April after having risen 0.2 percent in March. Good.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.1 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods moved up 0.8 percent and the crude goods index fell 1.2 percent. Good, on balance.
The CPI declined 0.1 percent in April after rising 0.1 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in both March and April. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1 percent from March to April. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.4 percent over the month. Good.
Sales of new one-family houses in April 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 14.8 percent March. Good.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.9 percent in April. Good.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 3.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010. The good news is muted a bit.
Personal income increased 0.4 percent in April. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $4.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. Mixed, albeit a good mix.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Will the recovery flower in May?
Despite an employment report with mixed news at the top side, May’s good news index is running ahead of April’s through the first half dozen releases.
As we dig beneath the headline numbers on jobs, the news actually gets a little better—four of the five indicators that make up our labor market index improved in April. The employment-to-population ratio had the greatest positive impact, followed in order by aggregate hours, goods-producing employment, and long-term unemployment. The overall unemployment rate was a negative influence.
Overall, the labor market index rose one-half of 1 percent and was half an index point above its trailing 6-month average. The moving average itself advanced for the first time since early 2007.
Total construction activity for March 2010 was 0.2 percent above the February total. Not a significant change, but that’s an upgrade. Score it 0.5.
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3 percent in March. Good.
Sales of merchant wholesalers were up 2.4 percent in March 2010. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1 percent in March 2010. Good.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.6 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2010, with output rising 4.4 percent and hours worked rising 0.8 percent. Good all around.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply. Mixed.
As we dig beneath the headline numbers on jobs, the news actually gets a little better—four of the five indicators that make up our labor market index improved in April. The employment-to-population ratio had the greatest positive impact, followed in order by aggregate hours, goods-producing employment, and long-term unemployment. The overall unemployment rate was a negative influence.
Overall, the labor market index rose one-half of 1 percent and was half an index point above its trailing 6-month average. The moving average itself advanced for the first time since early 2007.
Total construction activity for March 2010 was 0.2 percent above the February total. Not a significant change, but that’s an upgrade. Score it 0.5.
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3 percent in March. Good.
Sales of merchant wholesalers were up 2.4 percent in March 2010. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1 percent in March 2010. Good.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.6 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2010, with output rising 4.4 percent and hours worked rising 0.8 percent. Good all around.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply. Mixed.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Keeping pace; must finish month strong
On indicator-to-indicator basis, the good-news index (GNI) for April is keeping pace with March, on net (2-1/2 points up and 2-1/2 points down). We’ll still need to have a strong finish to the month to keep the growing recovery up to speed. The two wild cards are new home sales, the only indicator with (plenty) of room to make better news in April, and the employment cost index, which makes its quarterly appearance in the GNI.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent in February 2010. Bad.
February 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.8 percent from January. Good.
Total February exports of $143.2 billion and imports of $182.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $39.7 billion, up from $37.0 billion in January. Bad, albeit for all the best reasons.
The Import Price Index rose 0.7 percent in March. The increase was attributable to higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports and followed a 0.2 percent decline in February. Export prices also rose 0.7 percent in March. Neutral, at best.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in March; the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged. Good.
Real average weekly earnings rose 0.1 percent over the month, as a result of a 0.3 percent increase in the average work week offsetting a decrease in real average hourly earnings. Over the past 9 months, real average weekly earnings have changed little. Neutral.
Total business sales for February 2010 were up 0.3% from March. Good.
Retail and food service sales for March increased 1.6 percent from the previous month. Good.
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in March and increased at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in the first quarter. Good.
Privately-owned housing starts in March 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.6 percent above the revised February 2010 estimate.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent in February 2010. Bad.
February 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.8 percent from January. Good.
Total February exports of $143.2 billion and imports of $182.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $39.7 billion, up from $37.0 billion in January. Bad, albeit for all the best reasons.
The Import Price Index rose 0.7 percent in March. The increase was attributable to higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports and followed a 0.2 percent decline in February. Export prices also rose 0.7 percent in March. Neutral, at best.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in March; the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged. Good.
Real average weekly earnings rose 0.1 percent over the month, as a result of a 0.3 percent increase in the average work week offsetting a decrease in real average hourly earnings. Over the past 9 months, real average weekly earnings have changed little. Neutral.
Total business sales for February 2010 were up 0.3% from March. Good.
Retail and food service sales for March increased 1.6 percent from the previous month. Good.
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in March and increased at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in the first quarter. Good.
Privately-owned housing starts in March 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.6 percent above the revised February 2010 estimate.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Gathering strength
March ended well, or at least profitably, and the employment situation report gave April a swift kick off. The Good news Index (GNI), the proportion of selected principal Federal economic indicator reports that headline good news, was 73.8 in March, and is now fully recovered from a mild dip in January.
The employment situation was pretty darn good on the topside and our own index of labor market conditions drawn from deeper in the report was up for the third time in the past six months. In addition, the March increase in the labor market index brought it up above its 6-month moving average. If we were securities market technical analysts, we would be talking about the index testing its downtrend by crossing over the average. And we would be calling that good news as well.
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Good (tallied in April).
After-tax profits for large retailers averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter 2009, up 0.7 cents from third quarter 2009. Good (tallied in March).
Manufacturers' after-tax profits averaged 7.9 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter of 2009, up 0.9 cents from the third quarter of 2009. Good tallied in March).
Personal income increased less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income or less than 0.1 percent, in February. Personal consumption expenditures inceased 0.3 percent. Neutral (tallied in April).
New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent in February. Good (tallied in April).
Total construction activity for February 2010 was 1.3 percent below January. Bad (tallied in April).
The employment situation was pretty darn good on the topside and our own index of labor market conditions drawn from deeper in the report was up for the third time in the past six months. In addition, the March increase in the labor market index brought it up above its 6-month moving average. If we were securities market technical analysts, we would be talking about the index testing its downtrend by crossing over the average. And we would be calling that good news as well.
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Good (tallied in April).
After-tax profits for large retailers averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter 2009, up 0.7 cents from third quarter 2009. Good (tallied in March).
Manufacturers' after-tax profits averaged 7.9 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter of 2009, up 0.9 cents from the third quarter of 2009. Good tallied in March).
Personal income increased less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income or less than 0.1 percent, in February. Personal consumption expenditures inceased 0.3 percent. Neutral (tallied in April).
New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent in February. Good (tallied in April).
Total construction activity for February 2010 was 1.3 percent below January. Bad (tallied in April).
Friday, March 26, 2010
Someone's gotta build on Marvin Gardens
Much like the GDP report, the good news index (GNI) is doing well as we close in on closing out March, but isn’t quite as good as we reported last month. However, in the fine print of BEA’s report there is a bit of good news, although profits were not quite as high in the fourth quarter as they were in the third, the cash flow they generated -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment –increased to $69.1 billion. In the GNI, in contrast, we look in vain for good news in a sector that traditionally leads the economy—housing and its associated construction activity. Doesn't somebody, anybody own all the yellows?
We have a couple of financial reports (for manufacturing, mining, and wholesale and for retail trade) left in March. I will be late getting on the durable goods report next Wednesday so I can slip it into April’s GNI.
For this week:
Sales of new one-family houses in February 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 2.2 percent below January’s. Bad.
New orders for durable goods increased 0.5 percent in February. Good.
GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The third estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.3 percentage point lower than the second estimate. Good, albeit less good than we thought a month ago.
We have a couple of financial reports (for manufacturing, mining, and wholesale and for retail trade) left in March. I will be late getting on the durable goods report next Wednesday so I can slip it into April’s GNI.
For this week:
Sales of new one-family houses in February 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 2.2 percent below January’s. Bad.
New orders for durable goods increased 0.5 percent in February. Good.
GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The third estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.3 percentage point lower than the second estimate. Good, albeit less good than we thought a month ago.
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