March ended well, or at least profitably, and the employment situation report gave April a swift kick off. The Good news Index (GNI), the proportion of selected principal Federal economic indicator reports that headline good news, was 73.8 in March, and is now fully recovered from a mild dip in January.
The employment situation was pretty darn good on the topside and our own index of labor market conditions drawn from deeper in the report was up for the third time in the past six months. In addition, the March increase in the labor market index brought it up above its 6-month moving average. If we were securities market technical analysts, we would be talking about the index testing its downtrend by crossing over the average. And we would be calling that good news as well.
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Good (tallied in April).
After-tax profits for large retailers averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter 2009, up 0.7 cents from third quarter 2009. Good (tallied in March).
Manufacturers' after-tax profits averaged 7.9 cents per dollar of sales for the fourth quarter of 2009, up 0.9 cents from the third quarter of 2009. Good tallied in March).
Personal income increased less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income or less than 0.1 percent, in February. Personal consumption expenditures inceased 0.3 percent. Neutral (tallied in April).
New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent in February. Good (tallied in April).
Total construction activity for February 2010 was 1.3 percent below January. Bad (tallied in April).
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