On indicator-to-indicator basis, the good-news index (GNI) for April is keeping pace with March, on net (2-1/2 points up and 2-1/2 points down). We’ll still need to have a strong finish to the month to keep the growing recovery up to speed. The two wild cards are new home sales, the only indicator with (plenty) of room to make better news in April, and the employment cost index, which makes its quarterly appearance in the GNI.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent in February 2010. Bad.
February 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.8 percent from January. Good.
Total February exports of $143.2 billion and imports of $182.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $39.7 billion, up from $37.0 billion in January. Bad, albeit for all the best reasons.
The Import Price Index rose 0.7 percent in March. The increase was attributable to higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports and followed a 0.2 percent decline in February. Export prices also rose 0.7 percent in March. Neutral, at best.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in March; the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged. Good.
Real average weekly earnings rose 0.1 percent over the month, as a result of a 0.3 percent increase in the average work week offsetting a decrease in real average hourly earnings. Over the past 9 months, real average weekly earnings have changed little. Neutral.
Total business sales for February 2010 were up 0.3% from March. Good.
Retail and food service sales for March increased 1.6 percent from the previous month. Good.
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in March and increased at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in the first quarter. Good.
Privately-owned housing starts in March 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.6 percent above the revised February 2010 estimate.
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