Will March break out or break stride?

As we move into the last third of March, the housing sector and the job market are still dragging on the news. There are a lot of data still to be released this month, including a report on home sales next week. Let’s wait before making any grandiose interpretations of what has been, thus far, a fair-to-middling month. The good-news index (GNI) is at 71.9 thus far in March, just a little off February’s final pace.

January 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 1.3 percent from December 2009. The inventory-sales ratio was a very lean 1.10. Good.

Total January exports of $142.7 billion and imports of $180.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December. Good on the topside, even if both exports and imports declined. Good.

Retail and food service sales increased 0.3 percent in February. Good.

Total business sales for January were up 0.6% from December 2009. Good.

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February following a gain of 0.9 percent in January. Manufacturing decreased 0.2 percent in February, with mixed results among its major industries. The output of mines rose 2.0 percent, while the index for utilities rose 0.5 percent. Mixed, neutral.

Housing starts in February 2010 were 5.9 percent below the January rate. Bad, just plain cannot yet sustain a drive.

The Import Price Index fell 0.3 percent in February. The decrease was led by a 1.9 percent downturn in fuel prices, which more than offset a 0.2 percent advance in nonfuel prices. Export prices fell 0.5 percent in February after advancing 0.7 percent in each of the previous two months. Good news all around.

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in February. This decrease followed a 1.4-percent advance in January and a 0.4-percent increase in December. The index for finished goods less foods and energy inched up 0.1 percent in February. Good, when viewed over time at the topside or when looking more heavily, as we do, on the core.

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in February after increasing 0.2 percent in January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February after falling 0.1 percent in January. Good.

Real average weekly earnings fell 0.2 percent from January to February. Bad.