February comes to a good end

The good news index for February finished strong and was only 0.1 point lower than December 2009, the best month so far in the recovery. (We’re sticking, by the way, with our December 9, 2009, suggestion that the recession’s trough occurred in April 2009.)

Sales of new one-family houses in January were 11.2 percent below December 2009. Bad, very bad, and especially bad for a sector that we really need to see some sustained growth in.

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.0 percent in January. Good, pretty darn good, in what is also a cyclically strategic sector.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. An earlier estimated had pegged the overall economic growth rate at 5.7 percent. Good news.

As we move into March, we have found the following:

Total construction spending in January was 0.6 percent below December 2009. Bad.

Personal income increased 0.1 percent and disposable personal income decreased 0.4 percent, in January. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5 percent. Mixed—one good (expenditure), one bad (disposable income), one indifferent (personal income).

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.7 percent in January. Shipments increased 0.3 percent. The orders backlog edged up to 5.54 months worth and the inventory sales ratio was unchanged at 1.29. All pretty good.

Productivity increased 6.9 percent in the nonfarm business sector during the fourth quarter of 2009 as unit labor costs fell 5.9 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates, revised). In manufacturing, productivity rose 6.6 percent while unit labor costs fell 6.3 percent. Good.