Off the pace?

Both the monthly good news diffusion index and its 3-month moving average are going into the last week of November lower than they were at the end of October. It will take a very strong finish—3 points out of a possible 4—to keep momentum up.

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased in September, as imports increased more than exports. Bad, but, as a switch, for better reasons—faster increases, rather than slower declines.

U.S. total business sales for September 2009 were down 0.3 percent from August. Bad.

U.S. retail sales increased 1.4 percent in October. Good.

Privately-owned housing starts in October 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000, more than 10 percent below September. Bad, shockingly bad.

The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.7 percent in October, led by a 1.8 percent increase in fuel prices. U.S. export prices advanced 0.3 percent in October. Only the disproportionate impact of fuel prices kept this from being too bad. Rated neutral.

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent in October; the index for finished goods less foods and energy moved down 0.6 percent. The decline in core prices pushes the envelope a bit, but on balance, this was a good news report.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in October. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, the same increase as in September. Good.

Real average weekly earnings fell 0.1 percent over the month, as a result of a decline in real average hourly earnings and an unchanged average work week. Since reaching a recent high point in December 2008, real average weekly earnings have fallen by 1.9 percent. Bad. Not horrible, but bad.

Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.2 percentage point to 70.7 percent. Good. Not spectacular, but good.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009. The second estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.7 percentage point lower than the advance estimate issued last month. Less good than we thought, but still in the right direction.