Monday, November 30, 2009

Better than half full, but no new wine

The good news diffusion index was unchanged at 60.5 in November. Reports on factory orders, retail sales, new home sales, and personal income were positive in November where they had been negative the month before. Conversely, the reports on foreign trade, business sales, housing starts, and durable goods orders were negative where they had been good news in October. The 3-month moving average of the GNDI slipped a bit to 60.4.

November closed out with the following reports:

New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.6 percent in October. Bad news, especially considered with drops in shipments and unfilled orders.

Sales of new one-family houses in October 2009 were at an annual rate 6.2% above September 2009. Good news for a struggling sector.

Personal income increased 0.2 percent and disposable personal income increased 0.4 percent in October. Personal consumption expenditures increased $68.3 billion, or 0.7 percent. Quite good news all around.

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