May showers turn colder

So far this month, barely a quarter of the news has been good as the economy seeks enough traction to brake its decline. The effort hasn’t gone well so far in May and hadn’t gone well in April. The good news diffusion index is at 27.3 so far this month, down from 31.3 in April and 36.9 in March.

March 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were $310.9 billion, down 2.4 percent from last month. End-of-month inventories were $411.7 billion, down 1.6 percent from last month. Bad news in the middle of the distribution chain.

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $27.6 billion in March from $26.1 billion in February, as exports decreased more than imports. Both terms of this equation and the sum are bad.

Retail and food service sales for April reached $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month. Bad, albeit less bad than March.

Total business sales for March were $971.7 billion, down 1.6 percent from February. Month-end inventories were $1,404.1 billion, down 1.0 percent from last month. No good news here.

The Import Price Index rose 1.6 percent in April. A 15.4 percent increase in import petroleum prices more than offset a 0.4 percent decline in the price index for nonpetroleum imports. Export prices also rose in April, increasing 0.5 percent. This is mixed news; no over-the-month increase of 1.6 percent in import prices is good, even if oil is to blame. However, the almost-too-big increase in export prices gives a sign that there is some demand out there.

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, in April. This rise followed a 1.2-percent decline in March and a 0.1-percent increase in February. Prices for finished goods other than foods and energy inched up 0.1 percent compared with no change in March. Moderate firmness in pricing is good news; the specter of deflation pushes further away.