I had thought my computer had lost the power to shock me; then I opened the Census Bureau’s Economic Indicators page. Any uptick, even one as small as April’s, in housing sales, especially coupled with firmness in mid-range pricing and another tick down in the months of inventory on hand, has to be regarded as promising.
While the small increase in durable goods orders also was good to hear, the details of that report, declining shipments and unfilled orders in particular, were not as good. Thus, the durable goods block in my good news diffusion index (GNI) was filled with a more conservative 0.5 rather than the 1.0.
After these two releases were logged, the May GNI read 38.2 percent, up 6.9 percentage points from April. The only release left on my calendar for May, unfortunately, is the preliminary report on first quarter GDP. So, let’s not start unrestrained celebrations yet.
Sales of new one-family houses in April 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000; a modest 0.3% above March. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2009 was $209,700, up a bit over the month; the average sales price was $254,000, down an even smaller bit. A good report, and something of a surprise.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $3.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $161.5 billion. This was the second increase in the last three months. Inventories, unfilled orders, and shipments fell. After some vacillation, I have decided to bend over backwards and call this a mixed report. (A painful example of the innate conservatism of the social sciences.)
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