Based on the fact that the best news in the opening third of February was from the labor market, and that news was pretty much just further deceleration of the downtrend, it’s answer A—so far in February, we’re still plodding on in more or less the right direction.
Our labor market index did eke out a tiny over-the-month gain, but is still below its trend line. From a technical perspective, this indicates that the trend is still down, however much it may have decelerated.
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged. Good, best in a long time.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 6.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009. This gain reflects increases of 7.2 percent in output and 1.0 percent in hours worked. Good.
In December, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent. Bad, a relatively small decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Total construction activity for December 2009 was 1.2 percent below November. Bad.
The homeownership rate in the fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. The homeowner vacancy rate in fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. Neutral. (Not included in GNI.)
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0 percent in December. Shipments increased 1.9 percent. Good.
December 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were not much changed in December. Neutral (plus).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment