Good industrial production news, generally good news on the price side, and even a decent reading on real weekly earnings lead the good news index back up over 70 to 71.4 thus far in February. Let’s do be aware of the fact that import and producer prices are showing some tendency to rising at less comfortable rates, especially when energy and other volatile prices are included. Something to keep an eye on—perhaps the Fed agrees with this more than they let on in announcing their very modest discount rate “normalization.”
Housing starts in January 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 2.8 percent above December’s. Good.
Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in January following a gain of 0.7 percent in December. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 0.7 percentage point to 72.6 percent. Good.
The Import Price Index advanced 1.4 percent in January as fuel and nonfuel prices each increased. Prices for nonfuel imports rose 0.4 percent. Export prices rose 0.8 percent. Nonagricultural export prices advanced 0.7 percent in January. Mixed, with overtones of upward pressure.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.4 percent in January. About three-fourths of the broad-based January advance in the finished goods index can be traced to higher prices for energy goods. The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.3 percent in January after no change in December. Good enough, but be aware of some price pressure at the earlier stages of processing.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the January Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 2.6 percent. The index for all items less food and energy declined 0.1 percent in January. Good.
Real average hourly earnings were unchanged in January. A 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index was offset by a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings for all employees. Real average weekly earnings grew 0.3 percent over the month. Good; it’s the weekly earnings that count in most households.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Upgrade to trudge
The three reports issued last week nudged the good-news index (GNI) up over 60. Not yet at the quick march, but at least the shoulders are square and the eyes are front.
The rest of this week will be see mostly price reports—international, producer, and consumer—but housing starts and industrial production numbers also will feature.
U.S. retail and food service sales for January increased percent from the previous month. Good.
For December, imports rose faster than exports and the trade deficit increased to $40.2 billion from $36.4 billion in November. Bad, even if the reasons were good; increases in the deficit retard GDP growth.
Total business sales for December 2009 were 0.9% from November. Month end inventories were $ virtually unchanged over the month. Good.
The rest of this week will be see mostly price reports—international, producer, and consumer—but housing starts and industrial production numbers also will feature.
U.S. retail and food service sales for January increased percent from the previous month. Good.
For December, imports rose faster than exports and the trade deficit increased to $40.2 billion from $36.4 billion in November. Bad, even if the reasons were good; increases in the deficit retard GDP growth.
Total business sales for December 2009 were 0.9% from November. Month end inventories were $ virtually unchanged over the month. Good.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
More plod or a dogtrot?
Based on the fact that the best news in the opening third of February was from the labor market, and that news was pretty much just further deceleration of the downtrend, it’s answer A—so far in February, we’re still plodding on in more or less the right direction.
Our labor market index did eke out a tiny over-the-month gain, but is still below its trend line. From a technical perspective, this indicates that the trend is still down, however much it may have decelerated.
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged. Good, best in a long time.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 6.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009. This gain reflects increases of 7.2 percent in output and 1.0 percent in hours worked. Good.
In December, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent. Bad, a relatively small decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Total construction activity for December 2009 was 1.2 percent below November. Bad.
The homeownership rate in the fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. The homeowner vacancy rate in fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. Neutral. (Not included in GNI.)
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0 percent in December. Shipments increased 1.9 percent. Good.
December 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were not much changed in December. Neutral (plus).
Our labor market index did eke out a tiny over-the-month gain, but is still below its trend line. From a technical perspective, this indicates that the trend is still down, however much it may have decelerated.
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged. Good, best in a long time.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 6.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009. This gain reflects increases of 7.2 percent in output and 1.0 percent in hours worked. Good.
In December, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent. Bad, a relatively small decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Total construction activity for December 2009 was 1.2 percent below November. Bad.
The homeownership rate in the fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. The homeowner vacancy rate in fourth quarter 2009 was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008. Neutral. (Not included in GNI.)
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0 percent in December. Shipments increased 1.9 percent. Good.
December 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were not much changed in December. Neutral (plus).
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