Halfway up the ladder, or halfway down the hole?

About two-thirds of the economic news released recently by the principal Federal economic indicators has been good and the good news diffusion index (GNDI) stands at 65.4 halfway through August. Of course, the dismal view is that this is may be marking a recession-ending scenario that “only an economic statistician could love.” My good friend Larry Mishel was quoted as saying that the non-statistician would call the recession over only when we have completely escaped the hole we have fallen (or been pushed) into.

My own feeling is the good news starts when we find out that there is, indeed, a ladder on the other side of the hole. In fact, the next set of policy challenges is likely to be sorting out which of the many ladders we have been offered are worth keeping.

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $27.0 billion in June from $26.0 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports. Bad news on the topside and just a flicker of life in general details; rated a zero.

U.S. retail and food service sales for July reached $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent from the previous month. No decline is good; rated zero.

U.S. total business sales for June were $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent from last month. Month-end inventories were $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent from last month. Both measures in desirable directions and statistically significant quantities; rated one.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July after increasing 0.2 percent in June. Stability is the good news in a price measure; rated one.

Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent from June to July 2009. This increase stemmed from a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours and a 0.2 increase in average hourly earnings. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was unchanged. Unspectacular growth, but growth gets rated one.

Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since the recession began in December 2007. Rated one.