Housing construction stalled in July. The overall diffusion of good news from the Principal Federal Economic Indicators has been three parts good to two parts bad so far this month.
Privately-owned housing starts in July 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000; this is 1.0 percent below June. Bad news, albeit not statistically significant--rated zero.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
Halfway up the ladder, or halfway down the hole?
About two-thirds of the economic news released recently by the principal Federal economic indicators has been good and the good news diffusion index (GNDI) stands at 65.4 halfway through August. Of course, the dismal view is that this is may be marking a recession-ending scenario that “only an economic statistician could love.” My good friend Larry Mishel was quoted as saying that the non-statistician would call the recession over only when we have completely escaped the hole we have fallen (or been pushed) into.
My own feeling is the good news starts when we find out that there is, indeed, a ladder on the other side of the hole. In fact, the next set of policy challenges is likely to be sorting out which of the many ladders we have been offered are worth keeping.
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $27.0 billion in June from $26.0 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports. Bad news on the topside and just a flicker of life in general details; rated a zero.
U.S. retail and food service sales for July reached $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent from the previous month. No decline is good; rated zero.
U.S. total business sales for June were $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent from last month. Month-end inventories were $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent from last month. Both measures in desirable directions and statistically significant quantities; rated one.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July after increasing 0.2 percent in June. Stability is the good news in a price measure; rated one.
Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent from June to July 2009. This increase stemmed from a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours and a 0.2 increase in average hourly earnings. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was unchanged. Unspectacular growth, but growth gets rated one.
Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since the recession began in December 2007. Rated one.
My own feeling is the good news starts when we find out that there is, indeed, a ladder on the other side of the hole. In fact, the next set of policy challenges is likely to be sorting out which of the many ladders we have been offered are worth keeping.
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $27.0 billion in June from $26.0 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports. Bad news on the topside and just a flicker of life in general details; rated a zero.
U.S. retail and food service sales for July reached $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent from the previous month. No decline is good; rated zero.
U.S. total business sales for June were $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent from last month. Month-end inventories were $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent from last month. Both measures in desirable directions and statistically significant quantities; rated one.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July after increasing 0.2 percent in June. Stability is the good news in a price measure; rated one.
Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent from June to July 2009. This increase stemmed from a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours and a 0.2 increase in average hourly earnings. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was unchanged. Unspectacular growth, but growth gets rated one.
Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since the recession began in December 2007. Rated one.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Post (computer) crash developments
Sorry about the long absence. My computer crashed, was resuscitated, then crashed again. I have made enough transfers from the old drive to get the blog back on it’s feet and I’m waiting for the call from the repair shop to see how much else I’ll be able to restore.
While I wasn’t watching closely, the good news diffusion index (GNDI), a measure of what proportion of the news coming out of the Principal Federal Economic Indicators system is “good news,” as determined by the baldest possible reading of the various reports’ leading paragraphs and figures, edged back a little to 47.1 percent in July.
In early August, the index has gotten off to its best start yet. I’ll give specific figures after a few more of the numbers have come out.
Our proprietary composite index of labor market conditions dropped a bit further in July, but the decline was the smallest since February 2008 when the recession was just getting under official way.
The index had actually reached its peak at 102.8 (2007=100) in December 2006, fully a year before the recession began. This long lead at peaks and equally long lag at troughs has been a feature of the index’s performance in recent recessions. When it was constructed its average lead or lag was about a quarter, rather than a year or more. There’s a paper in that somewhere.
While I wasn’t watching closely, the good news diffusion index (GNDI), a measure of what proportion of the news coming out of the Principal Federal Economic Indicators system is “good news,” as determined by the baldest possible reading of the various reports’ leading paragraphs and figures, edged back a little to 47.1 percent in July.
In early August, the index has gotten off to its best start yet. I’ll give specific figures after a few more of the numbers have come out.
Our proprietary composite index of labor market conditions dropped a bit further in July, but the decline was the smallest since February 2008 when the recession was just getting under official way.
The index had actually reached its peak at 102.8 (2007=100) in December 2006, fully a year before the recession began. This long lead at peaks and equally long lag at troughs has been a feature of the index’s performance in recent recessions. When it was constructed its average lead or lag was about a quarter, rather than a year or more. There’s a paper in that somewhere.
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