July sputters off to a weaker start than did June, but hey, there’s a holiday and a chance to rest, relax, and regroup before next Wednesday’s report on consumer credit. Have a great Fourth, but don’t propose any victory toasts quite yet.
Total construction activity for May 2009 was 0.9 percent below April 2009. This broke a very modest winning streak for this indicator. (Bad news. I’m still intrigued though by the strength in the construction of manufacturing facilities.)
New orders for manufactured goods in May increased $4.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $347.9 billion. (Good news—and the reason I’m intrigued by the factory-building boomlet.)
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June, falling by 467,000, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent. (Obviously bad, especially as the unemployment rate was “little changed” from 9.4 percent.)
Our proprietary index of labor market conditions dropped 2.2 percent in June. The gap between the index and its trailing six-month moving average edged down a bit, even so. As we noted recently, a trough in the index-moving-average gap has been associated quite closely with the trough in the business cycle.
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