If there was any doubt about the fourth quarter of 2008 being a disaster, the two final (this time I mean it) PFEI releases for March removes it entirely.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, after-tax profits of large retail corporations over totaled $6.1 billion, down $2.2 billion, or 26.8 percent, from the $8.4 billion recorded in third quarter 2008, and down 65.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007.
The over the year decline—which is a rough-and-ready style of seasonal adjustment—was driven by both lower sales (down 4.2 percent, fourth quarter to fourth quarter) and by slimmer margins (down 2 cents to 1.2 cents per dollar of sales).
At least the retail sector had profits. A separate report highlighted sharp swings prom profits to significant losses in manufacturing and mining firms, and a nearly complete evaporation of profits in wholesale trade.
These two bad-news reports drop the diffusion of good news in March to 36.9 percent of the news released through the Principal Federal Economic Indicators series of reports. The February index was 21.1 percent.
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