Total industrial production increased 1.3 percent in October after a downwardly revised decline of 3.7 percent in September. The revision to September output resulted, in part, from a larger estimate of the impact of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike on the chemical industry.
Manufacturing production, which dropped 3.7 percent in September, rose 0.6 percent in October. The output of mines advanced 6.1 percent, as most crude oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico were brought back online after the hurricanes.
Industrial production in September and October was substantially affected by the hurricanes and a strike in the commercial aircraft industry. Excluding these special factors, total industrial production is estimated to have fallen around 2/3 percent in both September and October.
Looking at just these two relatively benign numbers gives the impression that some recession talk may have been overblown. However, note that industrial production had been slipping since January before Ike drove it over a cliff. IP is now more than 4 percent lower than it was a year ago. Similarly, the capacity utilization rate is down 4.5 percentage points over the year and has been wobbling south since July of last year.
Still, factories, mines, and utilities seemed to have been able to find the financing to rebound in October from storms and strikes; will they be able to continue in November's credit climate and forward? We'll start to find out on December 15. (FED)
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment