Crop reports

 

Corn production down 1 percent from October forecast.
Soybean Production Down 2 Percent
Cotton Production Up less than 1 Percent

Corn production for grain is forecast at 14.5 billion bushels. Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels. All cotton production is forecast at 17.1 million 480-pound bales

Election week catch up

 Construction spending during September 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,414.0 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,410.4 billion.  During the first nine months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,058.5 billion, 4.1 percent above the $1,016.7 billion for the same period in 2019.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2020 were $549.3 billion, an increase of 1.9 percent from the previous month, and 5.4 percent above September 2019. Total sales for the July 2020 through September 2020 period were up 3.6 percent from the same period a year ago. 

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $63.9 billion in September from $67.0 billion in August (revised), as exports increased more than imports.

September 2020 sales of wholesalers were $486.0 billion, little changed from the August level, but were down 2.3 percent from  September 2019.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2020. The 4.9-percent gain in productivity in the third quarter was the second consecutive large increase in the measure—productivity had increased 10.6 percent in the second quarter of 2020. 

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate 

declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These 

improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that 

had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19).

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2-1/4 percent during the 

third quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving 

credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent. In September, revolving credit increased at 

an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 

4-3/4 percent.

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, in the 3-month period ending in September 2020. Wages and salaries increased 0.4 percent and benefit costs increased 0.6 percent.

Personal income increased $170.3 billion (0.9 percent) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $150.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $201.4 billion (1.4 percent).

The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 89.0, increased 0.9 percent from August and 1.1 percent from September 2019. The Crop Production Index was up 1.3 percent from last month and 5.9 percent from September 2019. The Livestock Production Index increased 0.2 percent from August, but decreased 3.7 percent from September 2019.

Farmers received higher prices during September for lettuce, hogs, corn, and soybeans but lower prices for milk, broilers, potatoes, and hay. In addition to prices, the indexes are influenced by the volume change of commodities producers market; in September, there was increased monthly volume for soybeans, corn, apples, and dry beans and decreased sales of cattle, wheat, cotton, and strawberries.

After bounce economy still producing less

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

To put this in perspective, at the end of 2019, the US had a $19.25 trillion economy. After the third-quarter rebound, the US had an $18.58 trillion economy.

Durable goods manufacturing stabilizing?

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed a 0.4 percent August increase and was the fifth uptick in a row. Although the May, June, and July increases were substantially higher than in the past 2 months, the massive declines in March and April mean the year-to-date level of durable good orders are fully 10 percent below the same 9 months of 2019. Perhaps durable good orders are now in a "New Normal" pattern that is lower than the "normal" normal?

New home sales rebound pauses for breath

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is not much changed from the revised August rate of 994,000, but is 32.1 percent above the September 2019 estimate of 726,000.

There were 284,000 new homes for sale at the end of September, about a 3.6 month supply at the current rate of sales.

Cattle on feed at record level for October

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on October 1, 2020. The inventory was 4 percent above October 1, 2019. This is the highest October 1 inventory since the series began in 1996.