Apparently, my renewed attention has not been sufficient to re-spark progress. Other than core prices remaining under control (a band of about half a percent either side of zero), the most recent reports have been worse than their immediate predecessors or were continued bad news.
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent. Our proprietary labor market index edged down for the first time in 4 months, and is desperately clinging to a place just above its trailing 6-month moving average. Mixed on the surface and neutral after an in-depth look.
Total construction activity for May 2010 was 0.2 percent below April. Bad.
Manufacturer’s shipments decreased 1.3 percent in May. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.4 percent. Bad.
May 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.3 percent from April. Inventories were up 0.5 percent. Bad.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $42.3 billion in May 2010, as imports increased more than exports. Bad, albeit for all the right reasons.
Retail and food service sales for June decreased -0.5 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for May 2010 were down 0.9% from April. Bad.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 0.5 percent in June. prices for finished goods rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended June 2010, their third straight month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good, especially as the monthly decline was strictly a food-and-energy thing.
The CPI declined 0.1 percent in June after falling 0.2 percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. Good.
Real average weekly earnings fell 0.2 percent over the month of June. Bad.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent in May 2010. Bad.
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in June. The capacity utilization rate for total industry was unchanged. Neutral.
Import prices declined for the second consecutive month, dropping 1.3 percent in June. Export prices fell 0.2 percent. Neutral.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
Stumbling through June
What’s up here? I get a good enough month at First XV Communications to put this blog on the back burner in June and things fall apart. The Good news index (GNI) fell by 9.9 index points during the month. Much of the accounting for the fall goes to the housing and related markets, but the rot seemed to be seeping into the durables factories as well. With the first major reports in July looking a bit dodgy as well (details in a later post), I guess I’ll just have to keep my nose to this particular grindstone, for the good of all.
In April 2010, wholesale trade edged up 0.7 percent over March. Good.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased very slightly in April, as exports decreased more than imports. Bad all around.
Retail sales for May decreased -1.2 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for April 2010 were up 0.6% from March. Good.
Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits averaged 7.7 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter of 2010, not statistically different from the fourth quarter of 2009. Neutral.
Housing starts in May 2010 10.0 percent below April. Awful.
After-tax profits for retail corporations averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter 2010, down 0.1 cents from the fourth quarter. Bad.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2010 were 32.7 percent below the revised April rate. Truly awful.
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1 percent in May. Alarmingly awful.
Import prices fell 0.6 percent in May. Fuel prices reversed the recent upward trend, falling 4.9 percent in May. In contrast to fuel prices, nonfuel prices continued to trend up in May, rising 0.5 percent. Everything is right on the knife edge between good and bad; rated as mixed or neutral.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved down 0.3 percent in May. Prices for finished goods rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ended May 2010. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2
percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from April to May. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.8 percent over the month. Good and better.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Still good, but less good than we had thought.
Personal income and disposable personal income both increased 0.4 percent in May. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Good.
Industrial production advanced 1.2 percent in May after having risen 0.7 percent in April. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 1.0 percentage point. Good.
In April 2010, wholesale trade edged up 0.7 percent over March. Good.
The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased very slightly in April, as exports decreased more than imports. Bad all around.
Retail sales for May decreased -1.2 percent from the previous month. Bad.
Total business sales for April 2010 were up 0.6% from March. Good.
Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits averaged 7.7 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter of 2010, not statistically different from the fourth quarter of 2009. Neutral.
Housing starts in May 2010 10.0 percent below April. Awful.
After-tax profits for retail corporations averaged 3.0 cents per dollar of sales for the first quarter 2010, down 0.1 cents from the fourth quarter. Bad.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2010 were 32.7 percent below the revised April rate. Truly awful.
New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1 percent in May. Alarmingly awful.
Import prices fell 0.6 percent in May. Fuel prices reversed the recent upward trend, falling 4.9 percent in May. In contrast to fuel prices, nonfuel prices continued to trend up in May, rising 0.5 percent. Everything is right on the knife edge between good and bad; rated as mixed or neutral.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved down 0.3 percent in May. Prices for finished goods rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ended May 2010. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year advances. Good.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2
percent in May. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent. Good.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from April to May. Real average weekly earnings rose 0.8 percent over the month. Good and better.
Real gross domestic product increased at a revised annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Still good, but less good than we had thought.
Personal income and disposable personal income both increased 0.4 percent in May. Good.
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent in April 2010. Good.
Industrial production advanced 1.2 percent in May after having risen 0.7 percent in April. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 1.0 percentage point. Good.
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