Zero for two on good news this morning. This drags the good news diffusion index down to 31.3 thus far in April. And, with only the advance report on Q1 GDP and last month’s personal income and outlays left to go, I’d have to bet that the index dips below 30 by the time we wrap up the month.
Sales of new one-family houses in March 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000. This is 0.6% below the revised February 2009 estimate of 358,000.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $161.2 billion.
Deep in the bowels of the home sales report, there were only 2,000 fewer sales in March than in the unexpected February spike in sales. In addition, both the number of homes on sale at the end of March and the months worth of sales they represented continued to edge down.
There was no such acorn as a reward for rooting around in the durable goods report. Orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all fell. Inventories fell by a smaller percent than shipments, implying no progress on working down inventories in durable goods manufacturing.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009
The economic slope is still slippery
Bad news outweighed the good this week as the economy struggles to find traction. While the quantitative measure of good versus bad news continues to be well below the break-even point (35.7 percent), the anecdotal and qualitative information in the Fed’s Beige Book was interpreted as portending a more stable situation: “However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.”
U.S. retail and food service sales for March totaled $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the previous month. (Bad news, although pretty much concentrated in the automotive and gasoline segments.)
U.S. total business sales for February were $994.9 billion, up 0.2 percent from January. Month-end inventories were $1,421.3 billion, down 1.3 percent over the month. (Good news, although entirely in the trade divisions.)
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods decreased 1.2 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods fell 1.5 percent and the crude goods index declined 0.3 percent. (Tough call, but this much price weakness is not good news, it is deflationarily bad.)
Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. (Bad news and promises more bad news for other production measures, such as GDP, in the first quarter.)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.4 percent in February. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March, the same increase as in February. (Good news—stable prices.)
Real average weekly earnings were about unchanged in March 2009. A 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours was offset by a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.1 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index. (Neutral)
Privately-owned housing starts in March 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised February 2009 estimate of 572,000. (Obviously bad news, although we should have been ready for it after last month’s upside spike.)
U.S. retail and food service sales for March totaled $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the previous month. (Bad news, although pretty much concentrated in the automotive and gasoline segments.)
U.S. total business sales for February were $994.9 billion, up 0.2 percent from January. Month-end inventories were $1,421.3 billion, down 1.3 percent over the month. (Good news, although entirely in the trade divisions.)
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods decreased 1.2 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods fell 1.5 percent and the crude goods index declined 0.3 percent. (Tough call, but this much price weakness is not good news, it is deflationarily bad.)
Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. (Bad news and promises more bad news for other production measures, such as GDP, in the first quarter.)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.4 percent in February. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March, the same increase as in February. (Good news—stable prices.)
Real average weekly earnings were about unchanged in March 2009. A 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours was offset by a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.1 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index. (Neutral)
Privately-owned housing starts in March 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised February 2009 estimate of 572,000. (Obviously bad news, although we should have been ready for it after last month’s upside spike.)
Monday, April 13, 2009
Playing catch-up
Apologies for the quick-and-dirty catch up—a couple of day jobs (or maybe pay jobs is better)—came up last week. In any case, the statistical system split evenly between good and bad news in our absence. As we go into the mid-month tide of data, the count stands at about 36 percent of the news released so far in April being good.
February 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were $319.7 billion, up 0.6 percent from last month. End-of-month inventories were $419.3 billion, down 1.5 percent from last month. (Good news on both.)
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $26.0 billion in February 2009 from $36.2 billion in January, as exports increased and imports decreased. (Good news through the front door this time.)
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent in February 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9-3/4 percent. (Bad news, credit crunch continues.)
Import prices increased for the first time since July, advancing 0.5 percent in March after edging down 0.1 percent in February. The March advance was led by a 10.5 percent rise in petroleum price. Export prices decreased 0.6 percent in March because of lower prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports. (Mixed to bad news. Scored as bad on balance, based uncomfortable decline in export prices.)
February 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers were $319.7 billion, up 0.6 percent from last month. End-of-month inventories were $419.3 billion, down 1.5 percent from last month. (Good news on both.)
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $26.0 billion in February 2009 from $36.2 billion in January, as exports increased and imports decreased. (Good news through the front door this time.)
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent in February 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9-3/4 percent. (Bad news, credit crunch continues.)
Import prices increased for the first time since July, advancing 0.5 percent in March after edging down 0.1 percent in February. The March advance was led by a 10.5 percent rise in petroleum price. Export prices decreased 0.6 percent in March because of lower prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports. (Mixed to bad news. Scored as bad on balance, based uncomfortable decline in export prices.)
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Production shaky, employment a shambles
The value of total construction activity for February 2009 was $967.5 billion, 0.9 percent below January 2009. Bad news, albeit less bad than recently.
New orders for manufactured goods in February increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion. Despite this upswing in the headline number, shipments were stagnant and the unfilled orders book slipped below a 6-month backlog. On the other hand, inventories were down and the inventory-to-shipment ratio edged down a trifle. Mixed news, on balance.
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 663,000 in March, continuing a decline that has totaled 5.1 million over the course of the current recession. The unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent. Our proprietary composite index of current labor market indicators re-accelerated its decline. Unrelieved bad news.
Obviously our diffusion index of economic news is off to a slow start in April—only 16.7 percent of the news has been good. At the comparable point last month there had been no good news at all.
New orders for manufactured goods in February increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion. Despite this upswing in the headline number, shipments were stagnant and the unfilled orders book slipped below a 6-month backlog. On the other hand, inventories were down and the inventory-to-shipment ratio edged down a trifle. Mixed news, on balance.
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 663,000 in March, continuing a decline that has totaled 5.1 million over the course of the current recession. The unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent. Our proprietary composite index of current labor market indicators re-accelerated its decline. Unrelieved bad news.
Obviously our diffusion index of economic news is off to a slow start in April—only 16.7 percent of the news has been good. At the comparable point last month there had been no good news at all.
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