New orders, shipments, and unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods all declined in December. Inventories rose over the month. The decline in shipments was 0.7 percent while the unfilled orders book shrank 1.3 percent. Taken together, these data imply that the cushion of unfilled orders is being eroded.
Sales of new one-family houses in December 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000. This is 14.7 percent below November and 44.8 percent below December 2007.
Both of these reports are pretty unambiguously bad news. The decline in new orders was fractionally less severe than last month, but even Pollyanna couldn’t make lemonade out of that.
The diffusion of good news in January’s statistical releases now stands at 14.7 percent. There are two releases to go—GDP (Q4) and ECI (Dec)—so I can’t see this rising much. Even if both max out, less than a quarter of the news we have seen this month would have been negative.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Friday, January 23, 2009
Straw houses
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, down 10.7 percent from November and 50.6 percent from December 2007.
Private housing starts were at an annual rate of 550,000 last December. This is 15.5 percent below November and 45 percent below December 2007.
Housing completions in December 2008 were at an annual rate of 1,015,000. This is 5.2 percent below November and 23.6 percent below December 2007.
It is hard to imagine a more negative report, although we may have to, given the million-unit housing overhang I heard about last October (See the November 4 post’s October 30 entry.) It may well be that the collapse of the housing bubble is the shock that is driving this recession—and driving it into the “longer recession” category.
Our next look at the new residential construction data will come February 18. Will you dare to keep your hands in the air and off the grab bar?
With only a very few reports left to go this month, the good news index (GNI) stands at 16.7 percent for January releases.
Private housing starts were at an annual rate of 550,000 last December. This is 15.5 percent below November and 45 percent below December 2007.
Housing completions in December 2008 were at an annual rate of 1,015,000. This is 5.2 percent below November and 23.6 percent below December 2007.
It is hard to imagine a more negative report, although we may have to, given the million-unit housing overhang I heard about last October (See the November 4 post’s October 30 entry.) It may well be that the collapse of the housing bubble is the shock that is driving this recession—and driving it into the “longer recession” category.
Our next look at the new residential construction data will come February 18. Will you dare to keep your hands in the air and off the grab bar?
With only a very few reports left to go this month, the good news index (GNI) stands at 16.7 percent for January releases.
Friday, January 16, 2009
CPI not bad, IP not good
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 0.7 percent in December, the third consecutive decline. The index is now only 0.1 percent higher than in December 2007. Declining energy prices, particularly for gasoline, again drove most of the decline.
Excluding energy, the index was virtually unchanged for the third straight month. The index for all items excluding both food and energy also was virtually unchanged in December.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI declined at a 0.3 percent seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) during the last quarter of 2008, after increasing at rates of 2.0, 2.5, and 2.7 percent during the first three quarters. The volatile energy component of the CPI fell at a SAAR of 76.6 percent during the fourth quarter, driving an overall rate of decline of 12.7 percent.
For the 12 month period ending December 2008, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent. This was the smallest calendar year increase since a 0.7 percent decline in 1954 and compares with a 4.1 percent increase for the 12 months ended December 2007. The “core” CPI (exclude food and energy) rose at a moderate 1.8 percent December to December.
As much as I suspect judgment calls, I am willing to say that there is enough good news below the energy-driven topside declines to rate this as a “mixed” report. The core numbers are within my somewhat arbitrary price stability parameters (+ or – 4 percent per year) and there is relative stability in about three-quarters of the major expenditure categories in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames.
Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.6 percent in December 2008. A 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.9 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) were partially offset by a 0.6 percent decrease in average weekly hours. Over the year, real earnings increased 2.9 percent.
While no one is happy with the hours component of this story, a substantial increase in real hourly wages and a pretty solid over-the-year increase in weekly earnings is hard to classify as anything other than good news.
Industrial production fell 2.0 percent in December, and declines were again widespread. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production decreased at an annualized rate 11.5 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry fell to 73.6 percent in December, a level 7.4 percentage points below its average level from 1972 to 2007.
Again, a report that doesn’t take a particularly keen judgment to classify as bad news. In historical perspective, the capacity utilization rate is as low as it got during the 2001 recession and five points below its trough in 1990-91.
With a good, a bad, and a mixed report, the good news index for January is at 17.9 percent. There are only a handful of reports left to go this month, and given that two of them are direct measures of the housing market, I’d not bet on this going up much as we close out.
Excluding energy, the index was virtually unchanged for the third straight month. The index for all items excluding both food and energy also was virtually unchanged in December.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI declined at a 0.3 percent seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) during the last quarter of 2008, after increasing at rates of 2.0, 2.5, and 2.7 percent during the first three quarters. The volatile energy component of the CPI fell at a SAAR of 76.6 percent during the fourth quarter, driving an overall rate of decline of 12.7 percent.
For the 12 month period ending December 2008, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent. This was the smallest calendar year increase since a 0.7 percent decline in 1954 and compares with a 4.1 percent increase for the 12 months ended December 2007. The “core” CPI (exclude food and energy) rose at a moderate 1.8 percent December to December.
As much as I suspect judgment calls, I am willing to say that there is enough good news below the energy-driven topside declines to rate this as a “mixed” report. The core numbers are within my somewhat arbitrary price stability parameters (+ or – 4 percent per year) and there is relative stability in about three-quarters of the major expenditure categories in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames.
Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.6 percent in December 2008. A 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.9 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) were partially offset by a 0.6 percent decrease in average weekly hours. Over the year, real earnings increased 2.9 percent.
While no one is happy with the hours component of this story, a substantial increase in real hourly wages and a pretty solid over-the-year increase in weekly earnings is hard to classify as anything other than good news.
Industrial production fell 2.0 percent in December, and declines were again widespread. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production decreased at an annualized rate 11.5 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry fell to 73.6 percent in December, a level 7.4 percentage points below its average level from 1972 to 2007.
Again, a report that doesn’t take a particularly keen judgment to classify as bad news. In historical perspective, the capacity utilization rate is as low as it got during the 2001 recession and five points below its trough in 1990-91.
With a good, a bad, and a mixed report, the good news index for January is at 17.9 percent. There are only a handful of reports left to go this month, and given that two of them are direct measures of the housing market, I’d not bet on this going up much as we close out.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Wholesale pricing weak
The seasonally-adjusted Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 1.9 percent in December. This decrease followed a 2.2-percent decline in November and a 2.8-percent drop in October. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods fell 4.2 percent in December after decreasing 4.3 percent in the prior month, and the crude goods index declined 5.3 percent following a 12.5-percent drop in November.
Just about all the current (last month, last three months) data in the report's summary tables were outside the parameters I use to determine a bad news price report. While consumers may get a bit of relief as the significant price weakness portrayed in this release gets passed through, such weak pricing is symptomatic of very weak demand. Thus, even though I gassed up recently, this is very much a bad news report.
The January GNI is now at 9.1 percent, with over half of the reports due out in the month already made public. BLS will release its next look at wholesale prices on February 17.
Just about all the current (last month, last three months) data in the report's summary tables were outside the parameters I use to determine a bad news price report. While consumers may get a bit of relief as the significant price weakness portrayed in this release gets passed through, such weak pricing is symptomatic of very weak demand. Thus, even though I gassed up recently, this is very much a bad news report.
The January GNI is now at 9.1 percent, with over half of the reports due out in the month already made public. BLS will release its next look at wholesale prices on February 17.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Slowing trade, falling prices
Foreign Trade
Exports of $142.8 billion and imports of $183.2 billion resulted in a November goods and services foreign-trade deficit of $40.4 billion, down from $56.7 billion in October. November exports were $8.7 billion less than October exports of $151.5 billion. November imports were $25.0 billion less than October imports of $208.2 billion.
While this decline in the trade deficit will have a good impact on the arithmetic of the national accounts, the fact that it came as a result of declines in production (exports) and consumption (imports) means the over all rating of the report is “mixed news,” at best. The Commerce Department will issue its next bulletin on goods and services trade on February 11.
Domestic trade
Retail and food services sales for December 2008, were $343.2 billion, a decrease of 2.7 percent from the previous month and 9.8 percent below December 2007. The previously-reported October-November 2008 change was revised from –1.8 percent to –2.1 percent.
Among all retailers, gasoline stations sales were down 35.5 percent from December 2007 and motor vehicle and parts dealers’ sales were down 22.4 percent over the year.
This is unambiguously a bad news report. The decline is big and accelerating from a downward revision of the previous month. Census will issue the next advance retail and food service sales report on February 12.
Foreign trade prices
The Import Price Index declined 4.2 percent in December, following decreases in each of the previous four months. Export prices also fell for the fifth consecutive month, declining 2.3 percent in December after a 3.4 percent drop the previous month.
Continued lower prices for both petroleum and non-petroleum prices in December contributed to the decrease in import prices. Overall, import prices fell 9.3 percent in 2008, the first year the index declined since 2001. The 2008 decrease was the largest in any calendar year since the index was first published in 1982.
Export prices fell 2.3 percent as both agricultural and nonagricultural prices declined in December. Prices for exports were down 7.5 percent in the last quarter of 2008, the largest three-month decrease since the index was first published in 1983. Export prices declined 3.2 percent in 2008, the first calendar year drop since 2001 and the largest since 1998.
While consumers may enjoy some relief from these numbers and the slower relative decline of export prices is vaguely suggestive of an improvement in the terms of trade, the magnitudes of price decline are far too big to be interpreted as anything other than bad news. BLS will issue its next report on international prices on February 18.
Domestic business
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November was $1,057.0 billion, down 5.1 percent from October 2008 and down 8.9 percent from November 2007.
Manufacturers’ and trade inventories at the end of November were $1,485.1 billion, down 0.7 percent from October 2008, but up 3.3 percent (±0.5%) from November
2007.
The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of November was 1.41 (based on seasonally adjusted data). The November 2007 ratio was 1.24 and the ratio in October 2008 was 1.34.
The only glimmer of not-bad news in this release was the very modest decline in inventory levels. The fact that such a fall came in the context of widespread sales and shipment declines puts this release pretty firmly in the “bad news” category. Census will release its next business sales and inventories report on February 12.
Over the past few business days, the Federal statistical system has disgorged three reports with bad or very bad news versus one with mixed news (if viewed optimistically). As a result the good news index (GNI) is now running at 10.0 percent in January.
The mix of reference months in today’s summary brings up another interpretive nuance. What little good news there was in this packet of reports came in November’s slight narrowing of the trade deficit. The other “mixed” report in the index so far referred to retailers’ financial statements for the third quarter of last year. Thus, the GNI is largely a measure of the perceptions of the economy that are being placed in the public consciousness in a particular month. An extension of the GNI concept might key the time coding to the reference period rather than the release date; film at 11:00.
Exports of $142.8 billion and imports of $183.2 billion resulted in a November goods and services foreign-trade deficit of $40.4 billion, down from $56.7 billion in October. November exports were $8.7 billion less than October exports of $151.5 billion. November imports were $25.0 billion less than October imports of $208.2 billion.
While this decline in the trade deficit will have a good impact on the arithmetic of the national accounts, the fact that it came as a result of declines in production (exports) and consumption (imports) means the over all rating of the report is “mixed news,” at best. The Commerce Department will issue its next bulletin on goods and services trade on February 11.
Domestic trade
Retail and food services sales for December 2008, were $343.2 billion, a decrease of 2.7 percent from the previous month and 9.8 percent below December 2007. The previously-reported October-November 2008 change was revised from –1.8 percent to –2.1 percent.
Among all retailers, gasoline stations sales were down 35.5 percent from December 2007 and motor vehicle and parts dealers’ sales were down 22.4 percent over the year.
This is unambiguously a bad news report. The decline is big and accelerating from a downward revision of the previous month. Census will issue the next advance retail and food service sales report on February 12.
Foreign trade prices
The Import Price Index declined 4.2 percent in December, following decreases in each of the previous four months. Export prices also fell for the fifth consecutive month, declining 2.3 percent in December after a 3.4 percent drop the previous month.
Continued lower prices for both petroleum and non-petroleum prices in December contributed to the decrease in import prices. Overall, import prices fell 9.3 percent in 2008, the first year the index declined since 2001. The 2008 decrease was the largest in any calendar year since the index was first published in 1982.
Export prices fell 2.3 percent as both agricultural and nonagricultural prices declined in December. Prices for exports were down 7.5 percent in the last quarter of 2008, the largest three-month decrease since the index was first published in 1983. Export prices declined 3.2 percent in 2008, the first calendar year drop since 2001 and the largest since 1998.
While consumers may enjoy some relief from these numbers and the slower relative decline of export prices is vaguely suggestive of an improvement in the terms of trade, the magnitudes of price decline are far too big to be interpreted as anything other than bad news. BLS will issue its next report on international prices on February 18.
Domestic business
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November was $1,057.0 billion, down 5.1 percent from October 2008 and down 8.9 percent from November 2007.
Manufacturers’ and trade inventories at the end of November were $1,485.1 billion, down 0.7 percent from October 2008, but up 3.3 percent (±0.5%) from November
2007.
The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of November was 1.41 (based on seasonally adjusted data). The November 2007 ratio was 1.24 and the ratio in October 2008 was 1.34.
The only glimmer of not-bad news in this release was the very modest decline in inventory levels. The fact that such a fall came in the context of widespread sales and shipment declines puts this release pretty firmly in the “bad news” category. Census will release its next business sales and inventories report on February 12.
Over the past few business days, the Federal statistical system has disgorged three reports with bad or very bad news versus one with mixed news (if viewed optimistically). As a result the good news index (GNI) is now running at 10.0 percent in January.
The mix of reference months in today’s summary brings up another interpretive nuance. What little good news there was in this packet of reports came in November’s slight narrowing of the trade deficit. The other “mixed” report in the index so far referred to retailers’ financial statements for the third quarter of last year. Thus, the GNI is largely a measure of the perceptions of the economy that are being placed in the public consciousness in a particular month. An extension of the GNI concept might key the time coding to the reference period rather than the release date; film at 11:00.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Labor market laments
Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The employment-population ratio fell to 61.0 percent in December, and was down 1.7 percentage points in 2008.
Over the past 4 months, payroll employment has fallen by 1.9 million, or 1.4 percent. In December, large job losses continued in manufacturing, construction, and employment services, while health care continued to add jobs.
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 1.1 percent in December and has dropped 4.0 percent since peaking in December 2007.
My own composite index of current labor market indicators dropped 3.2 percent to 83.2 (2007=100) in December. All five indicators had notable declines. From largest contributor to the overall fall in the index, the indicators are goods-producing employment, workers unemployed 15 weeks or more as a percent of the labor force, employment-to-population ratio, aggregate hours index, and the unemployment rate.
Didn’t take much analytical horsepower to decide this was a “bad news” release. The running average of my nascent good news diffusion index is 10.0 percent in January.
It may be noteworthy that my labor market index went beyond 4 points below its trailing 6-month moving average. In past recessions, this has indicated what stock market technicians might call an “oversold” labor market and the index has troughed very quickly after dropping so far below that rough measure of short-term trend. Interestingly enough, the trough in this divergence has exactly coincided with the trough of the recession in half the recessions it encompasses in its history. (It missed by one month in 1975 and by greater leads in 1970 and 1982.)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the next Employment Situation report on Friday, February 6.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The employment-population ratio fell to 61.0 percent in December, and was down 1.7 percentage points in 2008.
Over the past 4 months, payroll employment has fallen by 1.9 million, or 1.4 percent. In December, large job losses continued in manufacturing, construction, and employment services, while health care continued to add jobs.
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 1.1 percent in December and has dropped 4.0 percent since peaking in December 2007.
My own composite index of current labor market indicators dropped 3.2 percent to 83.2 (2007=100) in December. All five indicators had notable declines. From largest contributor to the overall fall in the index, the indicators are goods-producing employment, workers unemployed 15 weeks or more as a percent of the labor force, employment-to-population ratio, aggregate hours index, and the unemployment rate.
Didn’t take much analytical horsepower to decide this was a “bad news” release. The running average of my nascent good news diffusion index is 10.0 percent in January.
It may be noteworthy that my labor market index went beyond 4 points below its trailing 6-month moving average. In past recessions, this has indicated what stock market technicians might call an “oversold” labor market and the index has troughed very quickly after dropping so far below that rough measure of short-term trend. Interestingly enough, the trough in this divergence has exactly coincided with the trough of the recession in half the recessions it encompasses in its history. (It missed by one month in 1975 and by greater leads in 1970 and 1982.)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the next Employment Situation report on Friday, February 6.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Back in business!
I'm back after my Christmas break. One of my New Year's resolutions is to be more systematic about posting to this blog and to initiate a "good news diffusion index." This good-news index is based on the textual characterizations of developments in 20 of the Principal Federal Economic Indicators. It actually does take some judgement because some agencies asterik their characterizations if the data don't pass a test of statistical significance. Also, I will not be attempting to interpret or index agricultural data (at least until I've had more time to get familiar with them) and will only be indexing monthly and quarterly reports. So, the list of reports being indexed is:
Construction PIP
New factory orders
Productivity
Employment
Wholesale trade
Retail financials
Manufacturing financials
Trade deficit
IPP
Bus. Sales
Adv. Retail
PPI
CPI
Real earnings
Industrial prod.
Housing starts
GDP
Pers. Inc. & Exp.
Durables orders
New Home Sales
Consumer Credit
If a production-oriented report is categorized as "good news," it will receive a score of 1, if it is mixed or unchanged, a 0.5, if it is bad news, a 0. Price reports require a little more thought. If the annual (or annualized) change is in the range -3 to +3 percent, it will be deemed good news and scored accordingly. Annual price changes of -6 to -3 percent and +3 to +6 percent will be 0.5s. Price changes exceeding 6 percent up or down will be treated as bad news.
The index is the average of the scores for all reports available in a given month multiplied by 100. I will maintain a record of the monthly totals and keep a running score within each month. As you can reconstruct from the reports below, the current January GNI is at 16.7.
Construction spending
Construction spending during November 2008 was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,078.4 billion, 0.6 percent below the revised October estimate of $1,085.3 billion. [The Census Bureau notes that this “change” is not statistically significant.]
The current figure is, however, 3.3 percent below the November 2007 level of $1,115.3 billion, and during the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $998.4 billion, 5.3 percent below the same period in 2007.
These weak figures reflect, in part, the adjustment to the credit crunch and the housing market’s turmoil. It is interesting to note that 2007 was actually a more consistently down year for construction than 2008 has been—there was a negative sign on the percent change in 10 of 12 months in 2007 versus 7 of 11 so far in 2008.
(Census)
Factory orders
New orders for manufactured goods decreased for the fourth consecutive month in November, dropping 4.6 percent to $384.6 billion. There had been a 6.0 percent decrease in October.
Shipments, also down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased 5.3 percent to $393.8 billion. This was the largest percent decrease since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.6 percent October decrease.
Unfilled orders decreased 0.6 percent to $815.4 billion. This, following a 0.9 percent October decrease, was the second consecutive decline. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.82, up from 5.69 in October.
Inventories decreased 0.3 percent to $553.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent October decrease and was the third consecutive decline. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.41, up from 1.33 in October.
Not much acumen needed to see that these are very poor numbers. The lack of new orders is especially bad news for efforts to turn the economy back up, or even to stabilize it.
(Census)
Retailers’ financials (3Q08)
In the third quarter of 2008, after-tax profits of U.S. retail corporations with assets of $50 million and over totaled $8.3 billion, down 33.2 percent from second quarter 2008, and down 35.1 percent from the third quarter of 2007.
Sales revenues for large retailers in the third quarter of 2008, at $517.4 billion, were down 2.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, but up 2.9 percent from the $502.9 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2007.
After-tax profits for these corporations averaged 1.6 cents per dollar of sales for the third quarter of 2008, down 0.7 cents from the 2.3 cents recorded in the second quarter of 2008, and down 0.9 cents from the 2.5 cents recorded in the third quarter of 2007.
The over-the-year sales figures could be the last of the good news we see in this report for a while. It is worth noting that the revenue increase came in part as a result of considerable pricing strength, especially among consumer nondurable commodities. One should note, however, the pressure on margins. The quarterly changes can be discounted as largely seasonal.
(Census)
Construction PIP
New factory orders
Productivity
Employment
Wholesale trade
Retail financials
Manufacturing financials
Trade deficit
IPP
Bus. Sales
Adv. Retail
PPI
CPI
Real earnings
Industrial prod.
Housing starts
GDP
Pers. Inc. & Exp.
Durables orders
New Home Sales
Consumer Credit
If a production-oriented report is categorized as "good news," it will receive a score of 1, if it is mixed or unchanged, a 0.5, if it is bad news, a 0. Price reports require a little more thought. If the annual (or annualized) change is in the range -3 to +3 percent, it will be deemed good news and scored accordingly. Annual price changes of -6 to -3 percent and +3 to +6 percent will be 0.5s. Price changes exceeding 6 percent up or down will be treated as bad news.
The index is the average of the scores for all reports available in a given month multiplied by 100. I will maintain a record of the monthly totals and keep a running score within each month. As you can reconstruct from the reports below, the current January GNI is at 16.7.
Construction spending
Construction spending during November 2008 was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,078.4 billion, 0.6 percent below the revised October estimate of $1,085.3 billion. [The Census Bureau notes that this “change” is not statistically significant.]
The current figure is, however, 3.3 percent below the November 2007 level of $1,115.3 billion, and during the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $998.4 billion, 5.3 percent below the same period in 2007.
These weak figures reflect, in part, the adjustment to the credit crunch and the housing market’s turmoil. It is interesting to note that 2007 was actually a more consistently down year for construction than 2008 has been—there was a negative sign on the percent change in 10 of 12 months in 2007 versus 7 of 11 so far in 2008.
(Census)
Factory orders
New orders for manufactured goods decreased for the fourth consecutive month in November, dropping 4.6 percent to $384.6 billion. There had been a 6.0 percent decrease in October.
Shipments, also down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased 5.3 percent to $393.8 billion. This was the largest percent decrease since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.6 percent October decrease.
Unfilled orders decreased 0.6 percent to $815.4 billion. This, following a 0.9 percent October decrease, was the second consecutive decline. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.82, up from 5.69 in October.
Inventories decreased 0.3 percent to $553.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent October decrease and was the third consecutive decline. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.41, up from 1.33 in October.
Not much acumen needed to see that these are very poor numbers. The lack of new orders is especially bad news for efforts to turn the economy back up, or even to stabilize it.
(Census)
Retailers’ financials (3Q08)
In the third quarter of 2008, after-tax profits of U.S. retail corporations with assets of $50 million and over totaled $8.3 billion, down 33.2 percent from second quarter 2008, and down 35.1 percent from the third quarter of 2007.
Sales revenues for large retailers in the third quarter of 2008, at $517.4 billion, were down 2.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, but up 2.9 percent from the $502.9 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2007.
After-tax profits for these corporations averaged 1.6 cents per dollar of sales for the third quarter of 2008, down 0.7 cents from the 2.3 cents recorded in the second quarter of 2008, and down 0.9 cents from the 2.5 cents recorded in the third quarter of 2007.
The over-the-year sales figures could be the last of the good news we see in this report for a while. It is worth noting that the revenue increase came in part as a result of considerable pricing strength, especially among consumer nondurable commodities. One should note, however, the pressure on margins. The quarterly changes can be discounted as largely seasonal.
(Census)
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